So . . .
The people of the UK have a big decision to make on June 23rd, probably the biggest political decision of most people's lives, and certainly much more significant than any particular parliamentary election.
I'll vote to leave.
However, I've been deeply disappointed by the quality of debate on both sides of this issue. I feel that, for both Brexit and Bremain (surely the worst pair of abbreviations for a long time), many campaigners are being excessively negative, so I want to offer what I hope is a more balanced perspective.
I think that the UK and the rest of the EU are on different paths and, ultimately, have a different goal in mind. The European Union is explicitly about eventually creating a federal European superstate (see the recently debated phrase "ever closer union" for evidence of this), the exact structure of which is still to be negotiated, and I just don't believe that's what most people in the UK want. We joined an economic free-trade area, but the EU is already way more than that, and it continues to change in that direction. In fact, I'm sure it will have to continue to grow ever more tightly-knit, or fail; the problems with the Euro exemplify this. One currency used by a number of independently-run economies is just not working well, so either multiple currencies will need to be reintroduced, or the economies will have to be more and more centrally run.
Now, I'm not saying that the great European integration project is a bad project, or that it is necessarily doomed to failure. What I am saying is that most citizens of the UK don't feel comfortable with the idea of loyalty to Europe over loyalty to their country. The Stay campaign isn't trying to sell the idea of wholeheartedly committing to the ideal of a big powerful Euro-state, because they know it just won't sell here, so they present a campaign based on fears of what might go wrong if we leave, rather than a positive vision of the end goal towards which the EU is relentlessly heading.
I'm not voting to leave because of concerns over immigration, though the numbers we've seen recently have been quite large. I'm not voting to leave because I hate foreigners; I culturally self-identify as an Englishman, and also recognise value in the many different cultures inside, and outside, the EU . I'm not even voting to leave because of the money we give to the EU. I'm voting to leave because we're part of a club whose central aim we don't share, and whose central aim we're actually obstructing.
I think this is important; we're holding up European integration as long as we stay, because we don't want it. Mr. Cameron's recent negotiations resulted in, among other things, this paragraph:
"It is recognised that the United Kingdom, in the light of the specific situation it has under the Treaties, is not committed to further political integration into the European Union. The substance of this will be incorporated into the Treaties at the time of their next revision in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Treaties and the respective constitutional requirements of the Member States, so as to make it clear that the references to ever closer union do not apply to the United Kingdom."
So, there's official EU-wide recognition that the UK is not really committed to the EU plan. This seems farcical, and counter-productive; we'll be like the whiny teenager who doesn't want to join in the family gathering, and rather spoils it for everyone else. If the EU project can't survive without our money, it's not really worth much anyway. I reckon the European Union would thrive without us, and we outside it, but if it folds because we leave, then it was never really going to work, because we're not at the heart of Europe, and never have been.
There's lots of talk about the EU countries punishing us if we leave by refusing to trade with us, To me, this is either libellous, if false, or if true, is like the argument for not leaving an abusive relationship, "If you leave me, you'll be sorry, I'll make you pay". Once the threat is made, the relationship is already sundered, and needs to be formally ended as quickly as possible.
The UK is one of the 10 biggest economies in the world, do we really believe that companies in France, Germany, Italy and the rest won't want to sell things to us? If they want to sell, then other companies will be willing to buy from us too; high-tariff protectionist trade wars are not inevitable if both sides are just willing to negotiate in good faith. In the short term, the government should allocate most of the money currently sent to the EU to support for export-based companies, as they would undoubtedly face the worst of the economic disruption if we leave, but I don't think short-term difficulties are sufficient reason to avoid dealing with a long-term, ever-worsening problem. It wouldn't be any easier to leave the EU in 30 years time, but I think the desire to do so would then be almost overwhelming.
In conclusion, the UK and the rest of the EU want different things. We should wish each other well, go our separate ways, but remain friends.
